Wood Mackenzie provides in-depth analysis and forecasts of global and regional coal, iron ore, and steel market fundamentals. Our coal coverage includes thermal and metallurgical trade at a global level and regional coverage of North America, China, and India.

Our key deliverables include:

The key sections in a Wood Mackenzie long-term market outlook are:

Wood Mackenzie's research analysts conduct extensive and detailed research into their respective focus areas. We use a wide variety of sources, and most of our data is proprietary; however, we do publish some information from third party sources, with which we have agreements to do so.

We leverage Wood Mackenzie's highly integrated analysis of global energy and commodity markets. Our base case long-term coal market reports, updated semi-annually, derive from modelling of key coal demand and supply drivers. They are fully integrated with our power, natural gas, oil, and steel market modelling, all of which use consistent global upstream supply research, macroeconomic forecasts, and take key trends into consideration.

The primary internal data sources utilised in Wood Mackenzie's fundamental coal market analysis are:

The primary external data sources used by Wood Mackenzie to develop its fundamental short- and long-term coal market analyses are shown.

Our data are subject to a rigorous integrity checking and quality control process. We have developed a comprehensive set of checks, which are carried out on a regular basis, at a country, regional and global level.
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We analyse thermal coal markets in 98 countries and metallurgical coal markets in 53 countries, providing complete coverage of global seaborne thermal and metallurgical coal trade. Of the 98 countries we model for thermal coal, we develop fully detailed market models for 29 countries, which are generally those with a prominent role in the global seaborne coal market (either as a consumer or supplier). For the remaining countries, which are not major participants in the seaborne thermal coal market, we develop smaller, less granular models. We revisit our coverage regularly to ensure that we are conducting the appropriate level of analysis for the major coal importing and exporting countries.

As part of the integrated cross-sector modelling cycle, Wood Mackenzie updates its long-term fundamental coal market analyses twice annually. Our five long-term outlooks, comprising Thermal Trade, Metallurgical Trade, North America, China, and India, are released over a three-to-four-week period in May-June and again in November-December.

Our short-term reports are released on a monthly basis, with the exception of the North America and India report which are quarterly.

Wood Mackenzie develops its view of the market using publicly available information, information gathered from interactions with industry participants, and model results. Using this information, we compile drafts of our long- and short-term reports, insights, and other deliverables. Prior to publication, our reports are subject to rigorous internal peer review. This review includes participation from coal market team members as well as representatives from other appropriate Wood Mackenzie research teams (e.g. coal supply, regional gas and power teams, steel markets etc.). Also, in instances in which our analysis has a corporate focus, we regularly provide a draft to the appropriate companies for their review and comment.

This stage of the process is designed to ensure that each report is as accurate as possible, within the limits of what may be differing market views amongst the various participants. The final analysis produced is always Wood Mackenzie's market view and may not necessarily reflect the view of other parties.

Wood Mackenzie develops coal demand forecasts at a country level using a top-down (GDP-driven) approach that is met in many key demand regions by a bottom-up approach driven by plant-level analysis.
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In regions where we have dedicated power teams (Europe, Southeast Asia, China, and North America), we use those teams’ projections of electricity demand, generating capacity, and electric intensity to develop our long-term power coal demand forecast.
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Elsewhere and for other non-power thermal coal demand, we integrate our analysis with that of Wood Mackenzie's energy markets analysis, which provides country-level energy balances using a top-down approach starting with a long-term outlook for GDP. Similarly, for metallurgical coal, our demand outlook leverages analysis from Wood Mackenzie's steel markets specialists, who forecast long-term steel production by technology (basic oxygen furnace, electric arc furnace, etc.), hot metal production and steel demand by country. Using our proprietary assumptions on coke rates, pulverised coal (PCI) rates, and coal share by quality type (hard coking, semi-soft, and PCI coal), we develop a long-term forecast of metallurgical coal demand by quality type.
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In North America, a key input to our coal market analysis is the zonal electricity generation from our North American power modelling efforts. Our North American power analysts use the Aurora XMP® production cost simulation tool for energy price forecasting in North American power markets. Simulation of the North American power markets within Aurora XMP® using Wood Mackenzie's proprietary data and assumptions forms the basis for electricity price forecasting as well as fuel demand and generation mix inputs, and the models used by Wood Mackenzie's North American gas research team. Projections of industrial steam coal use and thermal coal exports are estimated outside of modelling and are treated as separate demand.
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Supporting this analysis is our underlying proprietary power plant database, which includes information on coal utilisation, quality specifications, emissions control processes, regulatory limits, and future plans.

We develop coal supply curves for every major coal exporting country by port/port region for different coal types and quality specifications using granular, mine production, mine-to-port transportation, and port costs produced by Wood Mackenzie's coal supply analysts. We include supply from existing mines, known projects and undiscovered reserves necessary to meet demand.
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We have 180 international supply curves representing both thermal and metallurgical coals traded on the seaborne market. Importer specifications, trade patterns, coke blend requirements, and environmental regulations are all considered. Additionally, due to the nature of international trade, we account for currency exchange rates and their impact on the changing costs of supply over the forecast period.
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In North America, our supply analysis considers around 80 different coal types that are defined by coal origin and quality. Detailed mine-by-mine analysis, cost build-up for nearly 1,000 US mines, and thermal coal imports, petroleum coke and waste coal, underpin our supply curves.

Wood Mackenzie’s Coal Supply Service production data represents the most likely commercial outcome for each asset. It is also a key component in estimating our independent view of the most likely reserves and value of an asset.
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To estimate an asset’s potential production and value, annual production figures are modelled within the bounds of an asset’s minimum and maximum operating capacities. The full production profile of an asset represents the total reserves over the asset’s modelled life. These reserves may or may not match the official estimates disclosed by a given company for a given asset. That means we may include additional resources into the official reserve base if judge them very likely to be exploited after considering factors that include but are not limited to economic, marketing, legal, environmental, and social aspects.
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In the near term, company reported production guidance is heavily considered in our analysis. In the longer-term – as asset performance becomes less certain – mine capacity, reserve base and economic factors become increasingly important while forming our view. This approach may vary depending on the information available in each region.
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Coal assets exist in a competitive market. To assess each asset fairly and individually, our representation of future annual production figures in the Coal Supply Service may differ from Wood Mackenzie’s views published within the Coal Markets Service.

Wood Mackenzie’s Coal Market Service supply data represents the total coal needed to satisfy our base case demand scenario. Our views on most suppliers and volumes are based on the results of our Global Coal Model (GCM) model – a simulation of the global coal trade in which assets, ports, and regions are assessed individually across multiple mine cost curves.
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Commodity markets are inherently complex and imbalanced. Factors external to our model and assessment criteria can affect supply and demand relationships. Our views on coal supply in the Coal Market Service may differ from the future mine-level production view in our Coal Supply Service, as not all coal supply available to the market may be required.

Another major input into our international coal trade modelling is our proprietary long-term freight forecast, which is developed using historical freight pricing, supply availability and our view on short-term demand, capacity bottlenecks, and planned capacity expansions. We consider vessel costs, both fixed and variable, and the costs incurred through the entire movement from originating port to destination port, including port efficiencies, port capacities, size of vessel that can load/offload at each port, fuel usage, fuel cost, and port charges. This allows us to leverage Wood Mackenzie's expertise in other areas, including our view of oil and oil-derivatives and global economic trends. Our North American model includes rail pricing inputs
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Internationally, our Global Coal Model (GCM) model optimises seaborne trade flows, yielding our long-term view of coal trade and prices. In general, price outputs reflect the average short term - one year or less - contract price negotiated in the then-current year in the most competitive market for that coal.
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We have modified our Global Coal Model (GCM) specifically for the North American market to optimise unit level demand plus industrial use and exports, yielding our long-term view of coal trade and prices. In general, price outputs reflect the average short term - one year or less - contract price negotiated in the then-current year in the most competitive market for that coal.

Wood Mackenzie has developed proprietary linear algebraic models for use in forecasting supply and prices for global seaborne trade and North American markets. The Global Coal Model (GCM) model incorporates our views of demand, supply, and infrastructure, and determine trade patterns and prices for each coal type modelled.
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The Global Coal Model (GCM) model is a proprietary model developed by Wood Mackenzie to forecast seaborne coal trade and prices for both thermal and metallurgical coal. By modelling thermal and metallurgical coal together, we can capture coals that can move between both markets.

For the North American coal markets, we have modified our Global Coal Model (GCM) to allow the input domestic mine level supply, including coal type, quality and cost plus transportation costs to derive unit level coal demand and coal price while integrating generation and gas supply views from our regional gas and power team analysis. Beyond power sector demand, industrial demand and exports are calculated.