You can access the latest report here: Wood Mackenzie | North America power markets strategic planning outlook: 2025 H1 decarbonization headwinds
Pricing Overview
Higher power prices: Weaker renewable supply and stronger natural gas prices are driving power prices upward.
Even with slower demand growth, prices continue to increase across the outlook period and remain higher than the base case, mainly due to the weaker renewable buildout.
On average, real energy prices rise 118% between 2025 and 2060 in this scenario, compared to 38% in the base case.
The loss of tax credits and increased storage costs also add upward pressure on capacity prices.
In states with strong RPS programs (e.g. US Northeast), Renewable Energy Credit (REC) prices remain elevated longer due to reduced compliance levels, while in weaker RPS states, higher power prices offset REC costs.
Comparing with Previous Outlooks
The Decarbonisation Headwinds case includes direct comparisons with the H1 2025 Base Case.
Additionally, you can use Lens Power to compare multiple scenarios and examine price and installation trends in detail:
Scenario comparison example (screenshot attached)
Solar buildout comparison (screenshot attached)
