The Wood Mackenzie regional research teams publish bi-annual outlooks with supply, demand, and power price forecasts going out the next 20-30 years.
These datasets and corresponding written reports are available in Lens Power & Renewables and Lens Direct, and can be accessed within the Supply, Demand, Prices, and Merchant Revenue (North America only) dashboards.
After filtering to a location, select the desired case from the forecast dropdown. Selecting a new forecast will update the visuals and data displayed.
Learn more about the different cases below:
Case Name | Description |
YYYY H1 SPO Base Case | SPO (Strategic Planning Outlook) Base Case is a comprehensive forecast of global power market supply, demand, and pricing across all regions looking forward up to 35 years. This serves as the foundational long-term market view. This case is published in H1 of each year. The 2025 H1 SPO Base Case for North America is published under the assumption that the Inflation Reduction Act remains largely intact. |
YYYY H2 IHO Base Case | IHO (Investment Horizon Outlook) Base Case is a 10-year investment-focused forecast extending up to 35 years that provides the most likely scenario for future power markets across all regions. It offers a comprehensive view of the investment landscape for power market commodities globally. This case is published in H2 of each year. |
2023 IHO Base Case Update | IHO (Investment Horizon Outlook) Base Case Update is a revised investment forecast that incorporates updated fuel and carbon power assumptions compared to the original IHO base case, providing an adjusted view of the most likely power market investment scenarios extending up to 30 years. Only applicable to Europe and Nordic regions, and was a one time update published in 2023. |
YYYY H1 /H2 High Fuel Price Case | High Fuel Price Case is a sensitivity analysis that models elevated natural gas and coal prices relative to base case assumptions to assess their impact on power generation costs, power prices, and market dynamics. This case is published bi-annually with each update, and only available for select regions. |
YYYY H1/H2 Low Fuel Price Case | Low Fuel Price Case is a sensitivity analysis that models lower natural gas and coal prices relative to base case assumptions to assess their impact on power generation costs, power prices, and market dynamics. This case is published bi-annually with each update, and only available for select regions. |
YYYY H1/H2 Accelerated Demand Case | Accelerated Demand Case is a scenario with accelerated data center growth enabled by sustained AI investment and federal policy prioritizing dispatchable generation and winning the AI race. This case is only available for North America. |
YYYY Moderated Demand Case | Moderated Demand Case is a scenario where data center demand slows down, resulting in a re-prioritization of decarbonization goals and stronger renewable penetration. This case is only available for North America. |
YYYY H1/H2 Decarbonization Headwinds Case | Decarbonization Headwinds Case is a scenario with slower electricity-sector decarbonization driven by policy changes or market barriers. This case is published bi-annually with each update, and only available for North America. The 2025 H1 Decarbonization Headwinds Case is reflective of policy changes contained in the May 22,2025 US House of Representatives version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA.) |
2021 H2 Net Zero Power Case | Net Zero Power Case is a scenario that models achieving net-zero emissions through predominantly renewable energy supply. This was a one-time scenario published in H2 of 2021, and is only available to Europe. |
YYYY H1/H2 Dry Case | Dry Case is a hydrological scenario that assumes water availability one standard deviation below the 15-year average used in the base case- modeling the impact of drier conditions on power markets. This case is published bi-annually with each update, and only available to Southern Cone markets. |
YYYY H1/H2 Wet Case | Wet Case is a hydrological scenario that assumes water availability one standard deviation above the 15-year average used in the base case- modelling the impact of wetter conditions on power markets. This case is published bi-annually with each update, and only available to Southern Cone markets. |
YYYY SPO Prevailing Pressures | Prevailing Pressures Case is a scenario with reduced offshore wind deployment and increased power demand for hydrogen production, reflecting real-world challenges including cost pressures, investor concerns, and permitting delays. Only available to Europe, Nordics and Greece. |
YYYY H1 Weather Sensitivity Case (N) | Weather Sensitivity Cases model how year-to-year fluctuations in wind and solar resource availability impact power prices and renewable capture rates. Eight alternative weather-year scenarios are modeled to quantify volatility in power price formation and market flexibility. Case numbers correspond to the following weather years: Case 1: 2015 Case 2: 2016 Case 3: 2017 Case 4: 2018 Case 5: 2019 Case 6: 2020 Case 7: 2021 Case 8: 2022 For example, the 2025 H1 Weather Sensitivity Case 3; assumes weather patterns from 2017. Only available for Europe, Nordics, and Greece. |
YYYY H1/H2 NYMEX Case | This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector’s long-term outlook. This is available for Mexico only. |
2026 H1 SPO Extended Disruption / Summer Settlement Case | To reflect the degree of uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of resolution of the conflict in the Middle East, this analysis supplements our European 2026 H1 SPO Base Case outlooks with two additional scenarios. In the Extended Disruption case slower progress is made towards a peace agreement, with prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz while, in the Summer Settlement scenario, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes by end of the northern hemisphere’s summer.
Summer Settlement
Extended Disruption
This is available for European markets only. |